{"id":18176,"date":"2019-02-06T18:38:48","date_gmt":"2019-02-06T18:38:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coyote.ca\/wp\/?p=18176"},"modified":"2019-02-07T21:28:56","modified_gmt":"2019-02-07T21:28:56","slug":"just-how-big-is-the-cannabis-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coyote.ca\/wp\/2019-02-06\/just-how-big-is-the-cannabis-market\/","title":{"rendered":"JUST HOW BIG IS THE CANNABIS MARKET?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Estimating this is akin to predicting anything about the current POTUS. Too many degrees of freedom, as the statisticians say. Too many moving parts, as the rest of us say.<\/p>\n<p>We recently looked at the cannabis market in the Canadian context (see: <a href=\"https:\/\/coyote.ca\/wp\/2018-09-28\/the-cannabis-craze\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>THE CANNABIS CRAZE<\/strong><\/a>). But this context leads one to overstate the global market. Canada\u2019s unique position is that it is currently home to the world&#8217;s biggest legal producers of cannabis because it is (only) the second country to legalise it. So the legal cannabis market is more important in Canada than it is, or ever will be, in the global context.<\/p>\n<p>What caught our attention on this topic is Constellation Brands\u2019 recent $5B (CAD) minority-stake investment in Canopy Growth<sup style=\"line-height: .5em;\"> [1]<\/sup>. Constellation is one of the world\u2019s huge beverage alcohol brand aggregators. Compared to major competitors (Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Diageo, etc), they look to be over-exposed to the declining high-volume beer category. For more on this, see sidebar.<\/p>\n<div class=\"\" style=\"width: 250px; background-color: #78b749; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 5px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 0px;\">\n<div class=\"sidebar-container\">\n<p class=\"sidebar-text\">sidebar<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><img class=\"lazyload\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: right;\" title=\"image provided by Constellation Brands\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%27200%27%20height%3D%27200%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20200%20200%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%27200%27%20height%3D%27200%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-orig-src=\"http:\/\/coyote.ca\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Bill-Newlands_300x300_web.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"\" style=\"float: right; width: 200px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 0px; padding: 15px 13px 0px 0px; color: #000;\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"\" style=\"float: right; width: 200px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 13px 10px 0px; color: #000;\">\n<p><strong>Bill Newlands<\/strong> is COO of Constellation Brands and is featured in the Globe &amp; Mail article that was the genesis of this post. He also made a very well-researched, highly-detailed presentation to shareholders and his industry at large to justify the Canopy Growth investment in September, 2018 (available <a href=\"https:\/\/coyote.ca\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/388263882-STZ-constellation-brands-2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0as a 5.4 MB PDF). Of particular interest is predicted gross and operating margins for Canopy Growth\u2014significantly higher than those for beverage alcohol.<\/p>\n<p>This is the kind of thing you do when you\u2019ve made a big bet for your company, your stock price goes down and hard questions are being asked.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Guess Range<\/h2>\n<p>$200B by 2032 (Bain &amp; Company, 2017)<br \/>\n$500B, <em>eventually<\/em> (Piper Jaffray, 2018)<\/p>\n<h2>The Context<\/h2>\n<p>The global beverage alcohol market is currently $1.32 trillion and is estimated to be $2.35 trillion by 2032<sup style=\"line-height: .5em;\"> [2]<\/sup>, which is 9% of the predicted cannabis market (Bain\u2019s lower range estimate).<\/p>\n<h2>The Rub<\/h2>\n<p>Cannabis market size estimates all depend on the pace of legalisation in countries beyond Uruguay and Canada. This is inherently unpredictable.<\/p>\n<p>Also, the experts seem to be assuming that legal cannabis consumption will be incremental consumption. It won&#8217;t be. The initial disruption will be in the illegal cannabis market as demand shifts to legal suppliers. This will not change beverage alcohol purchase\u2014or for any other category\u2014in the short to medium term.<\/p>\n<h2>The Summary<\/h2>\n<p>The legal cannabis market will be significant but it\u2019s very hard to predict. Let\u2019s watch, learn and act appropriately for our stakeholders, shall we?<\/p>\n<div style=\"border: currentColor;\">Notes and references:<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<ol>\n<li>All dollar amounts are USD unless otherwise noted.<\/li>\n<li>Marina Strauss, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-the-future-is-in-marijuana-constellation-puts-its-biggest-bet-on\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Beer to bud: Inside alcohol giant Constellation\u2019s big gamble on pot<\/strong><\/a>\u201d, The Globe and Mail, January 26, 2019.<\/li>\n<li>Stratistics MRC, July 18, 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Estimating this is akin to predicting anything about the current POTUS. Too many degrees of freedom, as the statisticians say. Too many moving parts, as the rest of us say. We recently looked at the cannabis market in the Canadian context (see: THE CANNABIS CRAZE).  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":18182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,58,5],"tags":[760,757,687,756,753,754,758,755,759],"class_list":["post-18176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-research","category-world","tag-beverage-alcohol","tag-bill-newlands","tag-canopy-growth","tag-constellation-brands","tag-global-cannabis-market","tag-how-big-is-the-cannabis-market","tag-marina-strauss","tag-size-of-cannabis-market","tag-the-globe-and-mail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>JUST HOW BIG IS THE CANNABIS MARKET? - Marketing Wilderness<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is legal cannabis a once-a-century market disruptor of the global beverage alcohol industry? Constellation Brands thinks so. This takes another look. %\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coyote.ca\/wp\/2019-02-06\/just-how-big-is-the-cannabis-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"JUST HOW BIG IS THE CANNABIS MARKET? - Marketing Wilderness\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is legal cannabis a once-a-century market disruptor of the global beverage alcohol industry? Constellation Brands thinks so. 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